A viral claim that 12.5 million Americans are taking 19 November off for GTA 6, costing the US economy over $1 billion, stitches together two numbers that measure different things. The 12.5 million comes from a YouGov poll commissioned by PCMag, and it counts people who plan to take time off work or school, or simply rearrange their week. The $1 billion figure is more than a year old, was never published as a study, and its own inputs produce a much smaller number. Posts on X from accounts including Bull Theory have presented both as a single finding, alongside claims about Logitech and a US Army battalion that are narrower than they sound.
There is real evidence that launch day will empty some desks, however. HR software company BambooHR says paid time off requests for 19 November are running about 13% above the same Thursday in 2024 and 2025, based on leave data from more than 3.4 million US employees. Part of that increase reflects a general rise in leave requests this year, which BambooHR puts at 2% to 4%. Grand Theft Auto VI unlocks on Thursday on PS5 and Xbox Series X|S, at times that vary by region.
The 12.5 million figure counts students and schedule swaps, not just sick days
YouGov ran the poll online from 23 to 27 October, questioning 2,024 American adults, of whom 1,154 qualified as gamers. Of those surveyed, 8% said they planned to take time off work or school, or rearrange their schedules, to play GTA 6, which PCMag worked out at about 12.5 million people. Among Gen Z respondents, the share rose to 13%. TalkEsport reported those figures on Sunday, alongside Sensor Tower’s estimate of $1.18 billion in digital pre-orders.
That is a statement of intent, and it covers far more than a day off on launch day. A student skipping a lecture, a worker swapping a shift or someone booking leave for the following week would all count towards it. BambooHR’s own survey of 1,530 full-time US employees, run from 9 to 20 October, found that 18% of salaried workers planned to take time off for the launch. Half of the gamers planning time off said they would call in sick rather than book leave, which is one reason the request data is the firmer measure.
The $1 billion bill was first floated in 2025, and the maths behind it gives a smaller number
The $1 billion estimate first appeared in Spanish media in July 2025, when GTA 6 was still dated for May 2026. Infobae reported at the time, citing Cadena SER, that the first day could cost US employers close to $1 billion through absenteeism. Its report quoted Pompeu Fabra University economist José García Montalvo on the young men working remotely whom he saw as the heaviest players. Rockstar later moved the game to November, but the number kept circulating, and MercoPress reported in August that the estimate does not come from a published study.
The calculation repeated in later reports assumes that about 1.5 million US workers take the day off, and that each produces about $70,000 of output a year. TalkEsport ran those inputs through the same calculation to check the result. Spread over 260 working days, $70,000 comes to about $269 a day, so 1.5 million absences would cost roughly $400 million, or about $290 million if the year is counted as 365 days. Reaching $1 billion would need each absent worker to produce about $667 a day, or roughly $173,000 a year, and none of the reports TalkEsport reviewed explains that gap.
Joining the $1 billion figure to the 12.5 million poll makes the problem worse. If 12.5 million workers really took a full day off at $269 each, the same method would put the cost at about $3.4 billion, more than three times the headline. The two numbers come from different sources and were never meant to fit together. Victor Matheson, an economist at the College of the Holy Cross, told Fortune that even $1 billion would be about one-thirty-thousandth of annual US GDP, or roughly 1% of a single day’s output. Fortune’s report also noted that most time off shifts when work gets done rather than wiping it out, and Montalvo did not respond to its request for comment.
Logitech and the Army offered something narrower than a launch-day holiday
The employer examples in the viral posts need context too. Logitech’s Game Day, which TalkEsport covered last week, gives every employee one day off to play games, and the company’s announcement does not set a single company-wide date. GTA 6 heads the release calendar on Logitech’s Game Day website, so 19 November is the obvious pick, but staff choose their own day. Logitech G is also hosting a live stream from its San Jose headquarters on launch day.
The Army offer, which TalkEsport first reported in August, is narrower still. The 9th Brigade Engineer Battalion at Fort Stewart, Georgia, offered a special four-day pass timed to the launch, The Associated Press reported. It was only open to soldiers who signed up for at least two more years of service by 14 November. A Fort Stewart spokesperson confirmed the memo, and at least 20 of the 130 eligible soldiers had signed by 20 August. The deadline for signing up passed on Saturday, five days before the launch.
The clearest company-wide break so far comes from Japan rather than the US. Palworld developer Pocketpair granted all its employees special leave for what it called an “urgent five-day business trip in Vice City”, as TalkEsport reported on 12 November. Workers without a generous employer are relying on ordinary leave, and TalkEsport’s guide to taking time off for GTA 6 sets out what Australia’s Fair Work Ombudsman says about it. Pocketpair has done this before, giving most of its staff a day off for the launch of Monster Hunter Wilds in February 2025.
