Microsoft could sell Xbox, according to games industry analyst Joost van Dreunen. In a Substack post published on November 5, titled “The Election That Could Break Up”, he argues that the results of the 2026 US midterm elections may speed up a spin-off or sale of Microsoft’s gaming business.
It is a prediction, not a plan. Microsoft has not said it wants to sell Xbox, and Xbox CEO Asha Sharma has said publicly that “Xbox is not for sale.” Even so, the argument is worth looking at, because it ties Xbox’s future to something much bigger than games: Microsoft’s spending on AI.
How an election could reach Xbox
Van Dreunen points to Democrats winning control of Congress in the midterms as his starting point. His argument, as summarised by Beebom, is that the result could make Microsoft’s AI expansion harder, and that Xbox could end up paying for it.
Data centres are the link. AI needs huge amounts of computing power, and local opposition to new data centre projects is growing in the US. A Wall Street Journal report cited by Beebom found that more than 40 towns and counties had discussed limits on data centre construction, and at least 10 had voted to restrict or ban new projects. If building that infrastructure gets harder or slower, Microsoft may look for other ways to free up money and focus.
Xbox revenue is shrinking while other Microsoft businesses grow
This is where Xbox comes in. According to the figures Beebom reports, Xbox content and services brought in $5.4 billion in the latest quarter, down 2% year on year. Over a comparable period, Microsoft’s search and advertising business grew from $5.9 billion to $6.6 billion.
| Business | Latest figure | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Xbox content and services | $5.4 billion | Down 2% year on year |
| Search and advertising | $6.6 billion | Up from $5.9 billion |
A business that is shrinking inside a company betting everything on AI is an obvious candidate for a rethink. Van Dreunen himself is careful with his wording. In the public part of his post, he writes that the election “may accelerate several trends that are already reshaping the business”, rather than changing the economics of gaming outright.
Recent Xbox moves fit the theory, but also the opposite
Microsoft’s gaming division has changed a lot this year. The “XBOX Reset” in July 2026 cut more than 3,000 jobs and restructured the business. Microsoft has also launched Xbox Labs, an experimental unit looking at AI-powered game development, and Xbox XP, which turns game franchises into films and TV shows.
According to Beebom’s reading of the argument, Xbox XP could make the division more attractive to a buyer by making it look like a traditional entertainment company. However, the same moves can be read the other way. Microsoft is also still investing in its platform, including a rebuilt Xbox app for PC. That is not how a company usually treats a business it is about to sell.
Microsoft says Xbox is staying
For now, the official answer is no. Sharma’s “Xbox is not for sale” comment is the clearest signal from inside the company, and Microsoft has not responded to van Dreunen’s post.
What van Dreunen has done is put a question on the table that investors will keep asking: how much does Xbox matter to a Microsoft focused on AI? The next answer will likely come in Microsoft’s quarterly results, where Xbox’s revenue trend will be watched more closely than ever.
